Dutch Elections: Key Players and Central Topics in Early Election
Voters in the Netherlands are preparing to potentially replace the most conservative government in modern history with a more moderate and pragmatic alliance during snap parliamentary elections scheduled for October 29.
What's Happening and Why It Matters
Early legislative elections were called after the collapse of the outgoing administration in June, when rightwing politician the Freedom party leader withdrew his party from an increasingly fractious and highly ineffectual ruling coalition.
The PVV had achieved a surprising first place in the previous general election, and after prolonged talks formed a unstable multi-party conservative alliance with the BBB party, centrist New Social Contract and center-right VVD.
Nevertheless, Wilders' government allies deemed him too controversial for the prime minister position, which was given to a ex-security head. Wilders, an immigration-skeptic polemicist who has required security detail for two decades, resorted to criticizing from the sidelines.
He ultimately triggered the government collapse on 3 June after his allies declined to implement a radical 10-point anti-immigration plan that included using military forces to patrol borders, turning back all asylum seekers, shutting down refugee hostels and sending home all Syrian refugees.
Although backing of the PVV has decreased, polls indicate the far-right, anti-Islam party is again likely to win the most seats in parliament. But, main Dutch political parties have all ruled out forming a government with Wilders.
At least sixteen political groups are predicted to gain representation, but none is expected to secure above approximately 20% of the vote. As usual, the next Dutch government, generally an influential player on the EU and world stage, will emerge only after coalition negotiations that could last months.
Electoral Mechanics and Political Landscape
The parliament contains 150 MPs in the Netherlands legislature, meaning a government needs 76 mandates to form a majority. No single party typically achieves this, and the Netherlands has been governed by multi-party governments for more than a century.
Parliament is elected every four years – earlier if governments collapse – through proportional representation, based on an certified roster of contenders in a country-wide district: any political group that secures less than 1% of the vote is guaranteed a seat.
As in many European nations, Dutch politics have been characterized in modern times by a sharp decline in backing of the traditional governing groups from the moderate right and left, whose electoral support has decreased from over four-fifths in the 1980s to just over 40% now.
Domestically, this trend has been paralleled by a remarkable multiplication of minor political groups: 27 are running this time, including a party for the over-50s, a young people's party, a party for animals, a party for universal basic income, and a sports-focused party.
Key Players and Main Issues
Currently leading is Wilders' PVV, projected to lose up to eight of the 37 seats it won in 2023. It proposes, among other measures, a complete freeze on asylum, male Ukrainian refugees to be returned, the army to fight "street terrorists", and an end to "progressive education" in schools.
Two parties, of the moderate right and left, are closely competing after the PVV. The Christian Democrats (CDA) led Netherlands government from the late 1970s to the beginning of the nineties, and again in the start of the millennium, but slumped to just five seats in the last election.
However, under Henri Bontenbal, its youthful rising star, who entered politics just recently, the party has recovered strongly with a electoral platform highlighting the dire Dutch housing crisis and a promise of "normal, civilised politics". It is on course for up to twenty-six mandates.
GreenLeft/Labour (GL/PvdA), an electoral alliance between the green party and the 80-year-old Dutch Labour party that is expected to become a full-blown merger, is projected to win a similar number, according to survey data.
Led by the seasoned former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, it has made building more new homes its biggest priority, and has debatedly proposed a net migration cap of between forty to sixty thousand people a year in its manifesto.
Three additional groups look likely to be significant forces in the new parliament.
The liberal-progressive D66 is projected to gain seats – capturing up to 17, from its present nine – under its direct-speaking young leader, with a campaign focused on housing (it proposes to build 10 new cities) and an "personal minimum income" for recipients.
The center-right VVD, the political group of the ex-premier (now Nato chief), is predicted to decline to at most 16 seats from its current 24, with its head, criticized of moving the group excessively rightward, blamed for its decrease. It is promising business tax cuts and reduced social benefits.
The populist, hardline conservative JA21 is a spin-off from another far-right party – the previously successful, now scandal-hit FvD – and appears to be profiting from an departure of supporters from the three major rightwing parties. It could secure fourteen mandates.
In addition to the two main rightwing parties, both remaining members in the ill-fated outgoing coalition, the farmer and centrist parties, are projected to lose out, with the centrist party not even guaranteed representation in parliament.
The primary concerns currently have been immigration, with multiple – occasionally aggressive – protests against proposed asylum facilities for asylum seekers, the living expenses, and the chronic Netherlands issue of housing (the nation is short of four hundred thousand residences).
Possible Coalition Scenarios
Considering the highly fragmented state of Netherlands political landscape, what coalitions are feasible is just as important as who wins the election (or in this case, more likely second, since no major party will partner with Wilders, who insists he wants to head a minority administration).
Following the vote, MPs first designate an informateur, who seeks out possible alliances. Once a workable alliance has been identified, a formateur, typically the leader of the largest potential partner, begins negotiating the government program. This often requires months.
Multiple options look plausible, typically including a mix of political groups from moderate left and moderate right. The most probable, according to coalition experts, include Christian Democrats and GreenLeft/Labour, plus Democrats 66 and one or more minor groups potentially including the conservative party.
